That has the potential to transform the way households live and the way firms do business. When an economy is more “productive,” it’s using all the resources it has – from all its workers and its capital like buildings and equipment, to its technological investments – more efficiently than it used to. The economy might be getting more productive. Then it declined all the way and found its trough at 0.17% in July 2023.It then went up until it peaked at 2.48% in February 2022.It then declined and the last data point came in at 3.45% in July 2023.įor the core goods’ sub segment’s contribution to the headline CPI (stacked area), the first data point came in at 0.34% in January 2021.It went up until it peaked at 4.18% in February 2023.Then it fell until it troughed at 0.66% in July 2023.įor the core services’ sub segment’s contribution to the headline CPI (stacked area), the first data point came in at 0.77% in January 2021.It slowly grew and reached its peak at 1.58% in August 2022.The last data point came in at -1.1% in July 2023.įor the food sub-segment’s contribution to the headline CPI (stacked area), the first data point came in at 0.52% in January 2021.Then it came all the way down and bottomed at -1.54% in June 2023.It slowly grew and reached its peak at 2.98% in June 2022. The last data point came in at 3.18% in July 2023.įor the energy sub-segment’s contribution to the headline CPI (stacked area), the first data point came in at -0.24% in January 2021.Later it fell and reached its bottom at 2.99% in June 2023.Then it trended up until it peaked at 9.1% in June 2022.headline CPI inflation, the first data point came in at 1.4% in January 2021. headline CPI inflation.įirst, for the line that describes the % year-over-year U.S. headline CPI inflation and the contributions of the 4 sub-segments (energy, food, core services, core goods) to the % YoY U.S. The chart describes the % year-over-year U.S. If so, that’s good news for the Federal Reserve. Some of that is starting to show up in the official inflation data (e.g., airfares have been dropping), but with services inflation as a whole still running at a hot clip, there’s more progress to be made. Meanwhile, Expedia and some airline companies (e.g., Alaska Air, Frontier, JetBlue, etc.) have signalled cooling domestic travel spending, with hotels losing some steam, too. With “reopening” now old news (much of the world has been back in the swing of things for almost two years), consumers’ appetite to spend on travel and leisure is starting to chill out, while interest in goods is slowly picking back up.īoth Paypal and Amazon noted that e-commerce is accelerating, with shifting consumer preferences in mind. Yet this earnings season could be hinting at some progress. CPI report signalled that while inflation continues to cool, sticky services prices are eyebrow-raising. So what are we not talking much about that we should be? Today, we take a quick look at a few dynamics that we think could offer promise, and others that could have the potential to trip investors up.Ĭonsumers are starting to spend a little more on goods and a little less on services. While low summertime liquidity also plays a role, investors seem to be latching onto any “reason” they can find to question the path ahead – and to that end, this year’s big debates around inflation and monetary policy, bank stress, government debt and China’s growth slowdown all feel tired. The market has been pretty distracted, with stocks wavering and bond yields swinging the last couple of weeks. Our Top Market Takeaways for AugMarket update: What’s the market missing? Please enter a valid search, no special characters allowed.
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